South China Sea, rise of new bipolar system

South China Sea conflict cartoon
(Credit for image: The Citizen Daily)

Balkans used to be known as a 'Powder Keg of Europe' before the outbreak of World War 1. It literally means that there was always a potential of war in that region. In fact, the ethnic and religious conflict  in Balkans became one of the main reasons of the outbreak of World War 1. Just like a powder keg of Europe, there is a 'Powder Keg of Asia' these days. South China is a new powder keg of Asia and there is always a potential of war. South China Sea is under territory conflict and 7 countries are directly involved in this conflict. As just mentioned, 7 countries are directly involved but the major players in international politics including the United States are also indirectly related to the conflict as well. Why do they have a territory conflict in there? Why indirect players such as the United States are also involved in this territory conflict?

Before discuss about the main part of this post, here is a brief summary of current situation of South China Sea.

Territory dispute in South China Sea
(Credit for image: Slim)

• It has more than 40 years of history
• About 20% of oil trade through the sea crosses the South China Sea
• Rich mine of natural gas and oil
• China claims that the whole territory of South China Sea belongs to China
• UNCLOS set 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone
• All the involved countries also declared the ownership of the islands
• The arms race started
• South Asian countries are requesting a military support from the United States

Through the brief summary, we can see that one of the main reasons for territory dispute is economic benefit from South China Sea. If China occupies whole South China Sea, it gains significant resources and the resources will play an important role for it. Thus, the other nations which involved in territory dispute do not easily let China to occupy South China Sea.

China vs US
(Credit for image: Topinfopost)

Since the territory conflict got much serious than before, China decided to send its military troops to South China Sea. After China sent its military troops, the other nations increased their military budget to contain China. However, China is larger economic unit than all the other nations that involved in South China Sea conflict. Thus, eventually, their military power is much stronger than the other nations and South Asian countries cannot handle China without the support from the other countries. Therefore, most of them decided to sign the military agreement with the United States and the conflict in South China Sea is now became one of the most famous global issue.

Interestingly, current situation in South China Sea can be explained by the realism theory of international relations. Actually, South China Sea conflict perfectly fits in with realism theory. Here is the main point of realism theory that applies to South China Sea conflict.

1.      Every nations act for their benefit

l  To monopolise the rich resources and economic benefit through trading route, all the nations claim the sovereignty of the islands

2.      International organisation and law do not work

l  Even though UNLCOS set the sea border lines, nation states do not listen

3.      Arms raced emerged because of the security dilemma

l  China sent military troops to South China Sea and Asian nations felt threat to military force. They increased their military budget and security dilemma is already there.

4.      Emergence of bipolar system

l  According to neorealists, bipolar system is very stable form of global politics. Just like USSR and US had cold war, new type of bipolar system between China and US was emerged

China vs US 2
(Credit for image: Socio-Economics History Blog)

The intervention of indirect players such as the United States is also can be explained with the realism theory as well. China is rising very rapidly and many scholars are predicting the hegemon war between them. The case of South China Sea is definitely a hegemon war between them. As mentioned above, bipolar system is one of the pillars of neorealism theory so hegemon war is very natural phenomenon under realism explanation.

Free For All
(Credit for image: TIMnovate)

The case of South China Sea is very similar but also different to the past bipolar system between USSR and US. The United States is supporting South Asian countries to contain the expansion of China. It is very similar to the financial aid by the United States and USSR to third world countries. However, it is also different because it is not just a simple conflict between two different ideologies. Every nations that involved in South China Sea conflict has different interest so it is a power game between individual players. There is no such concept of 'team' in South China Sea!